Where The Harris Campaign Went Wrong

By Published On: November 7, 2024

In mid-July, as faith in the Democratic Party declined in the wake of the June Presidential Debate and President Biden dropped out of the race, Vice President Kamala Harris rallied a coalition overnight. Harris threw her campaign together “as if it were an airplane being built while in flight,” her advisors told reporters. Unfortunately, this airplane did not land on the victory runway in the early hours of November 6th, 2024. So what caused Donald Trump to beat Vice-President Harris to the gate?

First, it is important to acknowledge the role of identity politics in this election. As the first Black and South Asian woman to clinch the presidential nomination, Harris embraced the historical significance of her campaign without making it the center focus. She told National Public Radio in September that she “was running because I believe I am the best person to do this job at this moment for all Americans.” The only question in response was, were all Americans ready for Harris?

The answer to this question was evident in the demographic breakdown of voting nationwide. While Harris won 86% of Black voters and 53% of Latino voters, these numbers trail President Biden’s margins in 2020. This trend continues in predominantly college-educated suburbs, which Harris won, but by fewer votes than Biden did in 2020.

In Allentown, Pennsylvania, Samuel Negron said “It’s simple, really. We liked the way things were four years ago.” Negron’s comment reflects a shift to the right among Latino, blue- collar, and Blue Wall voters that has accelerated in recent years. Negron adds that the decisive factor for him was the economy, telling BBC News that “out here, you pay $5 for eggs. It used to be $1 or even 99 cents.” This inflation is not just an issue in Pennsylvania. Yahoo Finance reports that “food prices have risen a whopping 25.8%” since the 2020 election, and voters brought this to the polls. Ted Dietzler from Wisconsin says that “inflation is a big deal, and I don’t think Harris gets it.” While Harris repeatedly emphasized her middle-class background throughout her campaign, citizens did not see her as the person who understood their struggle and who would lower the cost of their grocery bills.

Additionally, Harris was seen as ideologically identical to President Biden, a perception that damaged her reputation both on the campaign trail and in voter booths. Leading up to the election, CNN’s Edward Isaac-Doevere reports that “internal polls [were] showing overwhelming majorities of voters thought the country was on the wrong track.” And Harris’s role in the Biden administration prevented her from becoming the “change candidate” that could put America on the right track. Despite the historical nature and vibrant energy Harris brought to the campaign trail, Trump emerged as the victim candidate in this race. Riddled with indictments and having survived two assassination attempts, Trump cast himself as a ruthless underdog, which evidently appealed to voters throughout the Sun Belt, Rust Belt, and Blue Wall.

This demonstrates that the rhetorical over-prosecution of Trump’s history by the Democratic Party became a double-edged sword with regard to the Harris campaign. Few were significantly deterred by Trump’s record as a convicted felon, and repeatedly mentioning Harris’s legal background did not draw voters to the left. Instead, this contrast emphasized Harris’s status as a “coastal elite”; a narrative that Trump weaponized, portraying himself as a victim who empathized with his supporters who faced hardships during the Biden administration.

Harris’s conscious choice not to differentiate herself from President Biden cost her voters throughout the Sun Belt, Rust Belt, and Blue Wall. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all once reliable Democratic strongholds, swung decisively for Trump, who according to Joey Garrison in USA Today “expanded his 2020 margins in 2367 counties nationwide”. Throughout her short campaign, Harris tried to make inroads in states like North Carolina, where Biden lost by 1.3 percentage points in 2020. This plan was thwarted by Hurricane Helene, which CTV News says “shifted focus at the foundation of the Harris campaign to the handling of the disaster by the Biden-Harris administration”. Natural disasters are beyond the control of any human, but the cold reception to the Biden administration’s response to Hurricane Helene likely cost Harris votes in the Tar Heel state.

The Harris campaign also emerged just after the Biden campaign’s downfall, bringing a slew of internal issues that may have compromised her performance on Election Day. First, critics cite that the Harris campaign had no central or defining policies, just a general disregard for Trump that did not resonate entirely with voters in swing states. Finally, Harris’s choice of Tim Walz as her vice president was warmly received but also slightly controversial.

Walz was generally seen as amicable, an accessible former teacher and member of the Army National Guard who could help connect with voters on a personal level and overcome the portrayal of Harris as out-of-touch. Walz was also from Minnesota, a more reliably Democratic state than his main competition for the #2 spot, Josh Shapiro. The Jewish governor of Pennsylvania, a Harris-Shapiro ticket would have likely tipped Pennsylvania blue. But his steadfast support of Israel was too glaring for a coalition that would have to also win the vote of those angered by the war in Gaza. Some characterize Harris’s stance on the Israel-Gaza war as inconsistent, which likely cost her votes across the nation as most Americans consider it the most pressing foreign policy issue.

Lastly, Harris was dealt an unfortunate deck of cards timing-wise. While her opponent announced his candidacy shortly after the 2022 Midterm Elections, Harris was thrust onto the center stage just three months before Election Day, presenting a clear disadvantage. William Galston from the Brookings Institution claims that “the president’s tardy decision deprived Harris of the opportunity to sharpen her arguments in a primary fight” and prevented her from cultivating a base of her own. And Harris’s fierce allegiance to President Biden, whose approval ratings barely surpassed 40% in the months leading up to the election, likely did not help her either.

Despite these obstacles, Harris managed to excite the Democratic Party and build an extensive coalition that surpassed the expectations of both supporters and critics. Although this article examines the shortcomings of her presidential campaign, it should not take away from the history made and the hope inspired in America in the process.